Abstract

• Istanbul’s airports carry on rising. The town will in all probability put by way of greater than 100 million passengers in 2023, and never for the primary time.
• The town’s two airports (Istanbul Airport [IST]and Sabiha Gökçen Worldwide Airport [SAW]) complement one another, catering primarily to full service O&D and switch passengers and low price O&D passengers respectively.
• Istanbul will likely be rejoining a choose membership of cities in Asia, Europe, and North America that deal with 100mppa, or have performed up to now.
• The 100mppa membership includes Atlanta, Bangkok, Beijing, Chicago, Istanbul, London, Los Angeles, Moscow, New York, Paris and Tokyo. Not all will stay members in 2023… Dubai might be part of too.  

Istanbul airports have skilled robust passenger development all through this century

The 2 airports serving Istanbul, Türkiye’s largest metropolis and the nation’s financial, cultural, and historic centre, collectively hosted 78.6 million passengers within the 9 months ended 30-Sep-2023, which was a rise of 17.8% year-on-year.

The entire on the main Istanbul Airport (IST), on town’s western (European) aspect and which changed Atatürk Airport in 2019, was 58.0 million (+21.7% year-on-year), whereas on the Sabiha Gökçen Airport (SAW) on the japanese (Asian) aspect the expansion stage was +22.7% year-on-year, to 27.7 million.

All three of those airports reported constant and excessive ranges of passenger development all through the 21^st century, and particularly SAW, which within the 11-year interval between 2009 and 2019 recorded development in yearly, reaching 72% in 2010. The bottom enhance was 4.2% (2019) and was in double digits for seven of these 11 years – probably the most spectacular development data in Europe.

Passenger visitors development had been spectacular on the previous Atatürk Airport as effectively, reaching +20.6% in 2012, though general development didn’t attain the identical ranges as at SAW and there was a single 12 months of ‘destructive development’ (-1.5%) in 2016.

The brand new Istanbul Airport opened half approach by way of 2019, however was then pitched straight into the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Since then it has recorded development, averaging 52% (2021/2022/Jan-Aug-2023).

Visitors at each the prevailing airports includes point-to-point (O&D) and switch visitors, with transfers a extra important a part of actions at IST, which is the house base of Turkish Airways.

Whole passenger numbers might quantity to 116 million in 2023

If these charges of development are sustained all through the rest of 2023, that will recommend that IST will finish 2023 with 78,480,000 passengers and SAW with 37,750,000, to a complete of 116,230,000 – the best ever achieved collectively by two Istanbul airports.

That will simply put town again into the ‘100 million passengers every year’ membership. That may be a time period first coined by CAPA – Centre for Aviation in 2015 to establish these cities globally the place a single business airport or mixture of them totals over 100 million in anyone 12 months.

It will not be the primary time Istanbul has achieved that standing, which is afforded to a small variety of cities worldwide, as detailed later.

The town managed 102.1 million passengers in 2018, the primary time the 100mppa barrier was breached, after which 103.6 million in 2019, with visitors being cut up between three airports.

Then the numbers took a dive within the two principal pandemic years of 2020 and 2021, to 40 million and 62 million respectively, earlier than recovering to 95.3 million in 2022.

Taking a look at every of the 2 airports individually, IST’s development in 1Q2023 to 3Q2023 was better within the worldwide phase (+23.7%) than within the home one (+16%). This was anticipated, since worldwide visitors continued to develop typically ‘post-COVID-19’.

Nonetheless, though home cargo tonnage grew by 10%, worldwide tonnage lowered by -3%, leaving an general downturn of -1.9%.

Plane actions had been up by 21.9% general, with the rise within the worldwide phase barely forward of that of the home one.

Some indicators that the propensity for ‘revenge journey’ is decreasing

General capability is presently (week commencing 23-Oct-2023) 12.2% increased than it was within the corresponding week of 2019, though the distinction has been increased than that earlier in 2023, and in addition through the summer season and autumn of 2022. The slowdown could also be led to by the weakening of the ‘revenge journey’ philosophy that’s obvious in lots of different nations, added to issues in regards to the financial system and worsening world tensions typically.

IST is predominantly a global airport (79.0% of capability), and the main airline by a big margin, utilizing the capability measure, is Turkish Airways, with 79.9%. This predominance rises to 98.9% on home flights – as near a monopoly as any airline of its stature achieves.

Indigenous airways account for 80.1% of capability with solely 19.9% taken up by international ones.

IST is a full service airport

IST could be very a lot a full service airport, with 95.7% of capability in that class, and low price at simply 3.2%.

As CAPA – Centre for Aviation has noticed up to now, IST is ready up as a lot as a switch airport – at which Turkish Airways excels, with its community of sixth freedom routes. Solely 13.3% of capability is on unaligned airways.

The route community map beneath demonstrates IST’s international scope.

A latest CAPA – Centre for Aviation report – OAG’s Megahubs – Heathrow finest linked, Kuala Lumpur makes look, Dubai is lacking – recognized IST because the seventh most internationally linked airport in an OAG survey, with Australasia the one unconnected area.

SAW is extra local-travel-oriented, with an emphasis on low price

The Sabiha Gökçen Airport (SAW) is a special beast, even when a few of the metrics within the efficiency statistics for 1Q2023 to 3Q2023 had been much like these of IST.

In that interval worldwide passenger development (+29.8%) once more exceeded home development (+15.9%), as did plane actions (+18.7% vs. +9.4% home).

Cargo tonnage elevated in each segments, to +10.8% general.

The variations between SAW, by comparability with IST, embrace better equality between worldwide (55.0%) and home (45.0%) capability, and a good smaller ratio of seats apportioned to international airways (4.4%).

That signifies that Pegasus Airways is the primary airline, with 66.9% of capability, however Turkish Airways has 28.7%, leaving lower than 5% for different airways.

General, low price accounts for nearly 69.3% of capability, in comparison with 3.2% at IST, and 70.6% is on unaligned airways, whereas the determine at IST is 13.3%.

The route community at SAW is depicted within the chart beneath.

So the 2 are differentiated by IST being the long-haul-oriented, transit, airport that draws full service and worldwide airways, whereas SAW is constructed round a smaller and extra native route and airline base, and is extra targeted on funds journey.

They collectively supply, although they’re individually owned, a complete Batman & Robin-like duo. Every has its personal area of interest market, however holistically satisfies the total vary of journey wants throughout the indigenous inhabitants and a wider exterior worldwide one. They usually do it extra rationally than, say, London, the world’s most interconnected metropolis (which has six business airports), Los Angeles (which has 5), and New York (three).

Istanbul is one in all few cities but to have reached the 100 million air passenger every year membership

Beforehand it was talked about that Istanbul is one in all a small variety of cities to have been a member of the 100mppa membership, in addition to being about to change into one once more.

The desk beneath is of different cities which both maintain that title now, have performed up to now, or that are prone to in 2023, based mostly on development charges to this point (primarily Jan-2023 to Aug-2023).